Local Market Expertise

Before we get started

One of the key phrases often used in the real estate industry is Median (ie median house price).  What does that mean, though?

A median is the middle value of a data range.  The separation point between everything higher and everything lower.  It is not, as some people think, an average (mean) of values.

Why is the mid point used and not an average?  Some thoughts are that averaging a group of numbers might produce a result that is affected by values at the extremities.

For example, if you average 45, 925 and 1,112 the mean of these three numbers is 694.  As you can see, 694 is not really a fair representation of any of these numbers. It is closest to the middle number, but understates it and does not represent either 45 or 1,112 at all.  This type of “misrepresentation" is less true when the mean is calculated with more consistent numbers.  If you average 845, 925 and 1,110 the mean of these three numbers is 960.  A better representation of all three numbers, but still overstating 2 of them (the majority).

On the other hand, though, the median of both sets of numbers (ie [45, 925 and 1,112] and [845, 925 and 1,110]) is the middle number, 925.  Where there is no clear middle number, the two middle numbers are averaged to find the median.  In our example the median of 45, 845, 925 and 1,110 is 885, whereas the average of these four numbers is about 731.  So clearly in this dataset the median number better represents 2-3 values while the average only closely represents 1.  The 885 median is derived by averaging 845 and 925.

The reliability of median house prices depends heavily on stability within the data, however.  Median price data is sensitive to variations in the types of homes that are selling (e.g., if a new development’s sales volume is saturating the data).  Significant variations in the type of sales, often leads to misleading fluctuations that do not represent a true central trend across the market.  Statistically, a higher volume of sales data better captures the true median.  A minimum of 100 data points generally provides an acceptable median.  Data samples with several hundred data points filter out irregular transactions or periodic peaks and are considered highly reliable.

Oh, my gosh!  This is so Boring!    Get on with it.

Median house prices are generally used to drive housing prices.  Commentary like:

‘The median property price for a house in Hollywell is currently $1,530,000, with annual capital growth of 7.37%.’

is often used in the real estate industry to promote a sense of FOMO.  Commit now or pay 7% more!

But, Mark Twain most famously reported the UK parliament’s use of weak data to support an argument, coining the American phrase “Lies, damn lies and statistics”.  Median house price data fits neatly into the third category of untruth, to some degree.  And don’t get me started on what growth percentages actually compare!

For example, I have only been able to locate the details of 48 properties that sold in Hollywell during 2025, (included at the end, if you’re interested).  The internet’s “official" result, though, details 53 sales and sets a median price of $1.53m.  I did locate several properties, however, that were identified as 2025 sales but occurred in 2024.  Perhaps these are the missing properties.  If you know of a property that I don’t have, please let me know.

Anyway, the details at Figure X (bottom) demonstrates that the median house price for Hollywell was “more likely” $1.45m (ie. =($1.45m+$1.45m)/2, because there are 2 mid points, but they have the same value).

I have not done the same data search for 2024, but assume that the reported 7.37% growth for the year on the reported $1.53m means that the 2024 median price must have been $1.425m.  If correct, and the current median is the $1.45m (from my research), this would mean that the actual growth rate for Hollywell during 2025 would be -1.76%, not +7.37% (not very helpful, eh!).

 Below is an indication of just how “misguided” median house pricing can be.

Unit sales around Helensvale

1.      Comparing past sales of two unit blocks about 800m apart in Helensvale.

2.      At first sight, it appears that there has been better price growth at Careel Close, however....

 3.      This 2nd cut shows that once all units that aren’t 2 bedroom have been removed from the comparison, it more accurately reflects that the same increase in prices Lindfield experienced in 2025 is now being experienced at Careel.

  4.      Combine both sets of data and the “non 2 bedroom” units have limited effect on median data (the percentage shift is the same 4%).  This seems to demonstrate the value of a mid point data selection (median) and larger data sets that capture the "most common" transactions.  

5.      This larger set of data shows a steady increase in median unit prices for the combined locations and pretty much sums up Helensvale's unit price movements.

Officially recorded median prices for Houses and Units around northern Gold Coast

... and then some crystal balling!

Data for 2026 – 2028 has been extrapolated from long-term growth averages.

Data coloured red has been adjusted to account for incomplete data series.

Struck out data has been excluded because it is too inconsistent.

Final thoughts

I would only rely on published median prices information for Houses and Units around northern Gold Coast for the following suburbs:

·       Pimpama – there were 504 houses sold during 2025.  This provides a highly reliable median house price.  Only 93 units were sold during the same period which provides acceptable data (but not great).

·       Coomera  – there were 453 houses sold during 2025.  This provides a highly reliable median house price.  Like Pimpama, only 93 units were sold during the same period which also provides acceptable data.

·       Upper Coomera – there were 424 houses sold during 2025.  This provides a highly reliable median house price.  Only 75 units were sold during the same period which provides reasonable data.

·       Helensvale – there were 355 houses sold during 2025.  This provides a reliable median house price.  Only 77 units were sold during the same period which provides reasonable data.

·       Ormeau– there were 328 houses sold during 2025.  This provides a reliable median house price.  Only 11 units were sold during the same period which provides unreliable median data.  A majority of the units sold were at the Lewani Palms Over 50s Resort at 26-42 Goldmine Road.  These more affordable unit sales have skewed the median price of other units in this suburb.

·       Southport – there were 341 houses sold during 2025.  This provides a reliable median house price.  There were also 647 units sold during the same period which provides a highly reliable median unit price.

·       Hope Island– there were 287 houses sold during 2025.  This provides a reliable median house price.  There were also 299 units sold during the same period which also provides a reliable median unit price

·       Labrador– there were 230 houses sold during 2025.  This provides a reliable median house price.  There were also 318 units sold during the same period which provides a more reliable median unit price than for houses with about a 28% higher sample size.

·       Oxenford – there were 216 houses sold during 2025.  This provides a reasonable median house price.  There were only 48 units sold during the same period, however, which provides an unreliable median unit price.

·       Pacific Pines – there were 198 houses sold during 2025.  This provides a reasonable median house price.  There were only 58 units sold during the same period, however, which provides an unreliable median unit price.

·       Paradise Point – there were 165 houses sold during 2025.  This provides a reasonable median house price.  There were only 66 units sold during the same period, however, which provides a less reliable median unit price.

·       Coombabah – there were 146 houses sold during 2025.  This provides a reasonable median house price.  There were also 97 units sold during the same period which provides an acceptable median unit price.

·       Ormeau Hills – there were 121 houses sold during 2025.  This provides a reasonable median house price.  There were no units sold.

·       Parkwood – there were 108 houses sold during 2025.  This provides an acceptable median house price.  There were only 3 units sold during the same period which provides an unreliable median unit price.

·       Biggera Waters – there were only 78 houses sold during 2025.  This provides a less reasonable, but acceptable median house price.  There were, however, 258 units sold during the same period which provides a reliable median unit price.

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